Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 604 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Today

AS 604 · SEA → AUS

departs 11:46 AM PT · arrives 6:04 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±3 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,233 ft Visibility7.33333 mi Precip1.66 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 604 · SEA → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?