Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 604 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AS 604 · SEA → AUS

departs 11:46 AM PT · arrives 6:04 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.33 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 604 · SEA → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?