Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 706 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 706 · SEA → OAK

departs 5:25 PM PT · arrives 7:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±3 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at OAK that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 706 · SEA → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?