Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 706SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS
AS 706 · SEA → OAK
departs 5:25 PM PT · arrives 7:33 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 122h before departure
Typical odds
Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Sunday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
35%chance · ±4 pts+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARELow. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.