AS 815 · SAN → HNL

departs 9:07 AM PT · arrives 12:18 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SAN that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.56 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 815 · SAN → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?