Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 815 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 815 · SAN → HNL

departs 9:07 AM PT · arrives 12:18 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ 9am departures from SAN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 815 · SAN → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?