Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 844 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 844 · LAX → OGG

departs 10:00 AM PT · arrives 12:34 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from LAX are often late

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at LAX that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 844 · LAX → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?