Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 844 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 844 · LAX → OGG

departs 10:00 AM PT · arrives 12:34 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from LAX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 844 · LAX → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?