AS 902 · HNL → SEA

departs 10:49 AM HT · arrives 7:21 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ 10am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.61 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 902 · HNL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?