AS 966 · LIH → SMF

departs 10:48 AM HT · arrives 7:01 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ SMF is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↓ 10am departures from LIH are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.11 in

SMF (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 966 · LIH → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?