Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 966 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AS 966 · LIH → SMF

departs 10:48 AM HT · arrives 7:01 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↓ 10am departures from LIH are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.45 in

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 966 · LIH → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?