Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1511
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
B6 1511 · JFK → LAS
departs 10:00 PM ET · arrives 12:49 AM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 39%
Sat 10/3 26%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 23%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.