Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 161
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
B6 161 · JFK → SMF
departs 6:20 PM ET · arrives 9:49 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 29%
Sat 10/3 29%
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.