Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 161
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
B6 161 · JFK → SMF
departs 6:40 PM ET · arrives 10:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Fri 10/2 50%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 5,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.