Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 406
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
B6 406 · ORD → JFK
departs 5:27 PM CT · arrives 9:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Wed 9/30 49%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 42%
Sun 10/4 50%
Mon 10/5 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±9 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.11 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.