Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 491
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
B6 491 · BUF → LAX
departs 8:20 PM ET · arrives 10:38 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 9/30 22%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3 29%
Sun 10/4 36%
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at LAX that day
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.