Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 495
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
B6 495 · HPN → MCO
departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 3:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 23%
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave HPN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HPN
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
HPN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.