Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 495
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
B6 495 · HPN → MCO
departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 3:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/1 20%
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±5 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave HPN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
HPN is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
HPN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.