Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 864
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
B6 864 · ORD → FLL
departs 2:35 PM CT · arrives 6:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Wed 9/30 76%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 36%
Sat 10/3 41%
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
69%
chance · ±6 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
69%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
38%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
69%
Yes 69%
No 31%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day
↑
2pm departures from ORD are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
FLL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
FLL (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.84 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.