Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 864
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
B6 864 · ORD → FLL
departs 2:35 PM CT · arrives 6:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Thu 10/1 85%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
FLL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FLL (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.