Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1006
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
DL 1006 · FSD → MSP
departs 8:23 AM CT · arrives 9:30 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 8%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FSD
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
FSD (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.