DL 1166 · JFK → SAT

departs 8:30 AM ET · arrives 11:42 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ 8am departures from JFK are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,567 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip6.53 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1166 · JFK → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?