Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1166
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1166 · JFK → SAT
departs 8:30 AM ET · arrives 11:42 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
SAT is prone to delays
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,267 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.