Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1406
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
DL 1406 · AUS → JFK
departs 11:15 AM CT · arrives 4:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Wed 9/30 11%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 14%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.94 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.