Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1441
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
DL 1441 · DFW → DTW
departs 6:35 PM CT · arrives 10:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 29%
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±9 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
6pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.58 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,333 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.