DL 1473 · MIA → JFK

departs 11:31 AM ET · arrives 2:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 11am departures from MIA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.25 in

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1473 · MIA → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?