Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1496
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
DL 1496 · SLC → PHX
departs 10:45 PM MT · arrives 11:31 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 15%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
29%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.