Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1496
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1496 · SLC → PHX
departs 9:30 PM MT · arrives 10:11 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Fri 10/2 15%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.