Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1609
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 1609 · MSP → STL
departs 9:50 PM CT · arrives 11:22 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±6 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,267 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,267 ft Visibility 3.33333 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.