Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1730
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 1730 · MSP → MCO
departs 6:00 AM CT · arrives 10:07 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 6%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 4%
Tue 10/6 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.