Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1842
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
DL 1842 · DTW → MSP
departs 6:10 PM ET · arrives 7:07 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 23%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at DTW that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from DTW are often late
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at MSP that day
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,240 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.15 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.