Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2044
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 2044 · ATL → HPN
departs 9:45 AM ET · arrives 12:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 11%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at HPN more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HPN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at HPN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HPN?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↑
9am departures from ATL are often late
↑
HPN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HPN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.