DL 2057 · SFO → DTW

departs 11:47 AM PT · arrives 7:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DTW that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,240 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2057 · SFO → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?