Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2159
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 2159 · SFO → MSP
departs 3:27 PM PT · arrives 9:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SFO that day
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.