Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2225
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
DL 2225 · MSP → MCO
departs 12:45 PM CT · arrives 5:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Wed 9/30 19%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at MSP that day
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.