Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2234
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
DL 2234 · BOS → TPA
departs 8:15 PM ET · arrives 11:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Wed 9/30 37%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 26%
Sat 10/3 21%
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
8pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BOS that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 1 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.