Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2309
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 2309 · MSP → MCO
departs 7:45 PM CT · arrives 11:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at MSP that day
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.