Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
DL 2438 · ATL → SRQ
departs 12:40 PM ET · arrives 2:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 23%
Mon 10/5 12%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SRQ that day
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↓
SRQ usually runs smoothly
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.