Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
DL 2461 · MSY → LGA
departs 11:49 AM CT · arrives 3:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.21 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.