Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2461 · MSY → LGA
departs 11:49 AM CT · arrives 3:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
11am departures from MSY are usually not late
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.93 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.