Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2500
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
DL 2500 · JFK → MIA
departs 3:10 PM ET · arrives 6:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Wed 9/30 26%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 27%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.63 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.