DL 2528 · SAT → MSP

departs 2:26 PM CT · arrives 5:16 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±5 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.53 in

MSP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2528 · SAT → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?