DL 2531 · TPA → LGA

departs 11:07 AM ET · arrives 1:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts −20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

LGA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2531 · TPA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?