Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2594 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

DL 2594 · MSP → PHL

departs 2:25 PM CT · arrives 6:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2594 · MSP → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?