Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2644
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
DL 2644 · MSP → IAH
departs 2:45 PM CT · arrives 5:39 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 22%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.