Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2678
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
DL 2678 · IAH → MSP
departs 2:35 PM CT · arrives 5:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 22%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at IAH that day
↑
2pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at MSP that day
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.11 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.