Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2696
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 2696 · TPA → MSP
departs 3:18 PM ET · arrives 5:38 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.45 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.