Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2822
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
DL 2822 · STL → DTW
departs 6:09 PM CT · arrives 8:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 9/30 15%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.