Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Thursday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2852 SCHEDULED

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

DL 2852 · TPA → DTW

departs 10:41 AM ET · arrives 1:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at DTW that day

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.13 in

DTW (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2852 · TPA → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?