Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2861
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 2861 · SEA → LAX
departs 5:30 PM PT · arrives 8:13 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at LAX that day
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.